Are you watching North Arlington townhomes and wondering what the numbers really say? You want clear signals on pricing, timing, and competition without getting lost in noise. In this guide, you’ll learn how to read the key trends that matter most for townhomes, what to expect in micro-markets like Palisades Park, and how to use data like a pro. Let’s dive in.
What counts as North Arlington townhomes
North Arlington boundaries
North Arlington is not a formal boundary in the MLS. For market analysis, you can define it by Arlington County neighborhoods north of major corridors and along Metro-accessible areas near Rosslyn, Courthouse, Clarendon, Ballston, and east-west corridors toward Lee Highway and Glebe Road. The precise boundary you choose will affect results, so apply one consistent approach when you pull data. Neighborhood names from Arlington County GIS or the MLS neighborhood field help create a repeatable footprint for analysis.
Townhome product definition
In MLS data, focus on attached homes classified as Townhouse or Row/Townhouse and exclude condominiums and detached single-family homes. Use finished living area for any $ per square foot calculations to keep comparisons consistent. If basements are inconsistently measured, note that in your analysis because it can distort $ per square foot.
The big picture: multi-year trends
A multi-year view helps you see pre-pandemic, pandemic, and post-pandemic cycles. Quarterly or rolling 3 to 6 month medians reduce noise that comes from small sample sizes.
Inventory and months of supply
Inventory is simply active listings, but months of inventory gives you context by comparing supply to recent sales pace. Compute months of inventory as active listings divided by average monthly closed sales over the prior 3 to 6 months. As a rule of thumb, under about 3 months of supply favors sellers and over about 6 months of supply favors buyers. Because townhomes are a smaller slice of the market, even a few new listings can swing the numbers.
Prices and dollar per square foot
Use median sold price and median $ per square foot on a rolling basis for the best read. Compare within similar vintage and renovation levels, since updated homes routinely command higher $ per square foot than original-condition homes. Flag any new-build townhome projects or luxury clusters and consider reporting them separately, since they can skew medians upward for a short window.
Days on market and price capture
Track median days on market for closed sales and the sale price as a percent of list price. Shorter days on market with steady or rising prices point to a tighter market. Watch for reporting quirks like “coming soon” listings or off-market marketing that can make days on market look lower than the true time to ratification. If available, use time to ratified contract for clarity.
Sales volume and liquidity
Sales counts and total dollar volume by quarter show liquidity. Rising volume with steady pricing suggests expanding demand. Soft volume with price gains usually signals constrained supply. Liquidity matters if you plan to buy and sell at the same time, since it affects how quickly you can move through each step.
Neighborhood lens: Palisades Park
Palisades Park in Rosslyn functions like a micro-market within North Arlington. Homes here can show different turnover and pricing patterns compared with the broader area. Because sample sizes are small in a single month or quarter, medians can jump around. Use a 12-month rolling median for Palisades Park and compare it against a broader North Arlington benchmark to see the true trajectory without month-to-month noise.
Seasonal patterns you should expect
Expect spring to bring more new listings and more closings, with quieter activity in late fall and winter. This seasonality affects inventory counts, days on market, and list-to-sale ratios. When you compare one month to another, make sure you are comparing the same season across years or use rolling medians that smooth out seasonal swings.
What it means for move-up sellers
If months of inventory stays low and days on market trend shorter, you are more likely to achieve strong pricing and favorable terms. The balancing act is on the buy side. If you are moving up within North Arlington, monitor the segments you will buy into for inventory buildup or softening percent-of-list. A small shift in days on market or percent-of-list can change negotiation leverage, especially in micro-markets like Palisades Park.
What it means for buyers
Shorter days on market and high percent-of-list suggest you should be prepared with financing, inspection strategy, and appraisal readiness. If months of inventory inches higher or percent-of-list weakens, you may gain room on price or contingencies. For townhomes, compare $ per square foot within similar renovation tiers and finished area. A renovated kitchen, added bath, or finished lower level can move $ per square foot more than you expect.
How to read the charts like a local
- Use 3 to 6 month rolling medians for price and $ per square foot to dampen noise.
- Always check sample size. When the number of closed sales is under 10 for a period, interpret medians carefully and rely on rolling 12-month trends.
- Pair days on market with percent-of-list to gauge both speed and price power.
- Look for annotations around interest rate shifts or new development deliveries. Macro changes and new-build clusters can temporarily distort trends.
Methodology and data notes
Sources
This approach relies on Bright MLS for listing, closed sale, days on market, list-to-sale price, and finished living area; NVAR and the Arlington Association of Realtors for monthly summaries; and Arlington County GIS and parcel data to confirm neighborhood boundaries. Long-run indices from major housing researchers can be helpful to cross-check direction, but MLS closed sales remain the primary series for townhome pricing.
Filters and definitions
- Geography: choose a consistent North Arlington footprint using the MLS neighborhood field or Arlington County neighborhood definitions. Document it so results are repeatable.
- Property type: include Townhouse or Row/Townhouse and exclude condominiums and detached single-family.
- Status and timing: use Closed sales for price trends, Active listings for inventory, and average monthly closed sales to calculate months of inventory. Use days to ratified contract if available.
- Area and $ per square foot: use finished living area consistently and note any basement measurement differences.
Caveats and quality checks
- Small samples: when the count is low, use quarterly or rolling 12-month medians and display the sample size.
- Outliers: exclude distressed sales or atypical luxury new-builds when reporting typical resale trends, or present them as a separate series.
- Time lag: closed prices reflect contracts written several weeks earlier, so very recent shifts can take time to appear.
- Renovations: $ per square foot varies widely by condition, additions, and age. Compare like with like whenever possible.
Ready for a neighborhood-specific read?
Every townhome cluster behaves a little differently, and the best decisions come from micro-market detail. If you want a custom North Arlington or Palisades Park report with current inventory, rolling price medians, and on-market strategy, reach out to Rick Shewell for a tailored consultation and pricing plan.
FAQs
Is now a good time to sell a North Arlington townhome?
- Check months of inventory, days on market, and percent-of-list trends for your segment, then align timing with your buy-side plan to maximize pricing and minimize risk.
How volatile are Palisades Park medians?
- Because sample sizes are small, medians can swing quarter to quarter, so use a rolling 12-month median and compare it to a broader North Arlington benchmark.
How should I compare dollar per square foot between townhomes?
- Compare within similar renovation levels, age, and finished area, and note whether basements are included in the square footage to avoid apples-to-oranges.
What does days on market tell buyers in Arlington?
- Short days on market signal competition and potential multiple-offer scenarios, while longer days can indicate room for price or terms flexibility.
Where can I find reliable data on Arlington townhomes?
- Bright MLS provides listing and closed-sale stats, NVAR offers monthly summaries, and Arlington County GIS helps confirm neighborhood boundaries for consistent analysis.
